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A Most Important Earnings Season

Picture of Jenn Cameron, CFA, CPA

Tariffs have upended global trade, distorted U.S. markets across key sectors, and introduced a wave of uncertainty for businesses and consumers alike.

While some industries may benefit, I believe tariffs will be a net drag on the U.S. economy and ripple negatively across global markets. I am not alone in this view, but we'll let the data speak for itself.

I'm going to watch three data points:

  1. U.S. Earnings
  2. U.S. balance of trade
  3. U.S. inflation

📆 2025 U.S. Tariff Timeline

🧱 Metals & Machinery

Date Category Tariff Rate Notes
Mar 12 Steel & Aluminum 25% Initial rate on most countries
Jun 4 Steel & Aluminum 50% Rate doubled; UK exempt
Aug 1 Copper (semi-finished) 50% Includes wire, rods, sheets, tubing
Aug 1 Electrical Components & Machinery 50% Includes motors, connectors, circuit boards
Aug 18 Steel & Aluminum Derivatives 50% 407 additional products added
Aug 18 Chemicals & Industrial Inputs 50% Includes adhesives, coatings, specialty compounds

⛽ Fuel Tariffs (Country-Specific)

Country Tariff Rate Notes
Russia 40% Refined fuels, LNG
India 25% Diesel, gasoline blends
Canada 10% Crude and refined fuels

🛍️ Consumer & Agricultural Goods

Category Tariff Rate Notes
China (consumer goods) ~104% est. Stacked tariffs on electronics, apparel, toys
Food (global) 10% baseline Applies to over 180 countries
Potash (fertilizer) 10% Targets Canadian and Russian supply

📅 Q4 Tariffs (Starting October 2025)

Date Category Tariff Rate Notes
Oct 1 Pharmaceuticals 100% Branded drugs only; exemptions for U.S. manufacturing
Oct 1 Heavy Trucks 25% Targets Mexico; includes tractor trailers
Oct 14 Softwood Timber & Lumber 10% Canada most affected
Oct 14 Upholstered Furniture 25% May rise to 30% on Jan 1
Oct 14 Cabinetry & Vanities 25% May rise to 50% on Jan 1 if no trade deal

Earnings

Starting today, I’ll review earnings reports from U.S. companies, comparing the current quarter to the trailing four-quarter average. I’ll flag any mention of tariff impacts and note deviations from analyst expectations.

I listed some bell weather industries and key players below, but I don't intend on restricting my analysis to these.

  1. Copper producers: $FCX, $SCCO, $RIO
  2. Steel producers: $NUE, $STLD, $X
  3. Fuel producers: $XOM, $CVX
  4. Consumer goods manufactures: $AAPL
  5. Agricultural companies: $ADM, $CF, $NTR
  6. Food Producers: $TSN, $PEP, $K, $HRL
  7. Restaurants: $MCD, $YUM, $QSR, $SBUX
  8. Heavy equipment manufactures: $CAT
  9. Car, motorcycle manufactures: $TSLA, $F, $GM, $HOG
  10. Heavy users of fuel: $UPS, $DAL, $LUV

Note: Changing quarterly reporting to semi-annual has its pros and cons, but doing it now when such a radical tariff policy has been implemented thwarts our ability to evaluate its effects.

U.S. Balance of Trade

One of the objectives of these tariffs is to reduce the U.S. trade deficit. I was very surprised at how aggressive people were online about reducing this back in 2018. Were all those people really worry about the trade deficit? It didn't impact them. It was fishy.

But, since he put it on the agenda, let's just watch the numbers.

July -$78.3B

June -$59.1B

A negative trade balance (deficit) means the U.S. imported more than it exported. A growing deficit suggests the tariffs haven’t yet reversed the trend.

U.S. Inflation

Q2 2025 2.1%

Q1 2025 3.6%

Inflation cooled from 3.6% in Q1 to 2.1% in Q2. I’ll continue tracking this as Q4 tariffs take hold.