Skip to main content

Back-up for Gold Bulls Seeking Alpha Article

This blog is back up for my Gold Bulls: Eldorado Gold Scores High on Value article on Seeking Alpha.

Leverage graph:

Valuation Calculation

Proven & Probable Resources Production Guidance
Contained Gold 000 oz 2019 2020
                      2,019 2018 2020 - pandemic adjusted 2020-pre-pandemic  2020 guidance  production costs/oz total cash costs/oz all-in sustaining/oz production costs/oz total cash costs/oz all-in sustaining/oz
AEM                    21,585 22039                                 1,680,000                      1,875,000                      1,680,000 735 673 938 765 1050
AGI                       9,726                          445,000 1010 790 1040
AUY                       7,859                          990,000 1150 660 1000
BTG                       6,470                          980,000 425 800
EGO                    17,501                          535,000 575 900
GOLD                    71,000                      4,800,000 1005 675 945
IAG                    16,700                          730,000 925 865 1125
NEM                  100,200                      6,000,000 775 1015
AUY could add 7382 for another mine they own put aren't working with
Guidance Model Getting this much
operatating profit/
gold price                       1,700 AISC Guidance Risk Factor  Shares OS  share Risk Adjusted  price   Profit per share  Risk adjusted
AEM                       1,700 1050                                 1,680,000 76.27777778                 234,787,000                                   4.65                              354.77                              61.54 13.2 0.17
AGI                       1,700 1040                                     445,000                                     71                 390,738,000                                   0.75                                53.48                                8.30 11.0 0.16
AUY                       1,700 1000                                     990,000 70.506                 950,265,000                                   0.73                                51.42                                5.21 7.1 0.10
BTG                       1,700 800                                     980,000 45.9525              1,039,990,000                                   0.85                                38.97                                5.35 6.3 0.14
EGO                       1,700 900                                     535,000 73.482                 167,253,000                                   2.56                              188.04                                9.03 3.5 0.05
GOLD                       1,700 945                                 4,800,000 66.624              1,778,040,000                                   2.04                              135.79                              25.71 12.6 0.19
IAG                       1,700 1125                                     730,000 54.435                 472,854,000                                   0.89                                48.32                                3.51 4.0 0.07
NEM                       1,700 1015                                 6,000,000 76.2747619                 802,585,000                                   5.12                              390.60                              58.41 11.4 0.15
Reserves model
Value of reserves  Cost of reserves risk adjusted
gold price Average PM reserves value of reserves  Shares OS   price   Market cap  per share
AEM 0.2961                   21,585 36694500                  234,787,000                                    62             14,448,791,980                              156.29 0.39 0.005
AGI 0.1887                     9,726 16534200                  390,738,000                                       8                3,243,125,400                                42.32 0.20 0.003
AUY 0.20258                     7,859 13360300 950265000                                       5                4,950,880,650                                14.06 0.37 0.005
BTG 0.4165                     6,470 10999000 1039990000                                       5                5,563,946,500                                10.58 0.51 0.011
EGO 0.1652                   17,501 29751700 167253000                                       9                1,510,294,590                              177.88 0.05 0.001
GOLD 0.6387                   71,000 120700000 1778040000                                    26             45,713,408,400                                67.88 0.38 0.006
IAG 0.083233333                   16,700 28390000 472854000                                       4                1,659,717,540                                60.04 0.06 0.001
NEM 0.3797                100,200 170340000 802585000                                    58             46,878,989,850                              212.24 0.28 0.004

Risk Matrix

AEM AGI AUY BTG EGO GOLD IAG NEM
# operating mines 9 6 5 5 9 22 4 21
Nunavut 2 1
Nunavut AI 73.24 73.24
Ontario 4 2 1 2
Ontario AI 79.29 79.29 79.29 79.29
Finland  1
Finland AI 92
Mexico 2 2 1
Mexico AI 65.43 65.43 65.43
Manitoba 1
Manitoba AI 68.01
Oregon 1
Oregon AI 69.46417
Brazil 1 2
Brazil AI 63.36 63.36
Chile 2 1
Chile AI 77.72 77.72
Jujuy, Argentina
Jujuy, Argentina AI
San Juan, Argentina 1
San Juan, Argentina AI 76.2
Santa Cruz, Argentina 1 1
Santa Cruz, Argentina AI 60.49 60.49
Mali 1 2 2
Mail AI 39.53 39.53 39.53
Philippines 1
Philippines AI 63
Namibia 1
Namibia AI 58.22
Nicaragua 2
Nicaragua AI 43.03
Romania 1
Romania AI 74
Greece 3
Greece AI 70
Turkey 2
Turkey AI 81.6
Quebec 1 1 1
Quebec AI 77.49 77.49 77.49
Nevada 9 8
Nevada AI 87.54 87.54
Tanzania 3
Tanzania AI 32.82
Saudi Arabia 1
Saudi Arabia AI 69
DRC 1
DRC AI 39.2
Papua New Guinea 1
PNG AI 58.84
Dominican Republic 1 1
Dominican Republic AI 35.85 35.85
Cote D'Ivoire 1
Cote D'ivoire AI 60
Burkina Faso 1
Burkina Faso AI 61.19
Ghana 2
Ghana AI 60
Western Australia 1
Western Australia AI 92.45
Northern Territory 1
Northern Territory AI 81.43
Colorado 1
Colorado AI 68.46
Suriname 1
Suriname AI 66.13
Peru 1
Peru, AI 75.14
Saskatchewan
Saskatchewan AI
Overall Rating 76.27777778 71.15236 70.506 50.945 72.378889 66.43091 54.435 76.2747619
Check Digit 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
AI = attractiveness indes
Source:  https://www.fraserinstitute.org/sites/default/files/annual-survey-of-mining-companies-2019.pdf
US Average 69.46416667

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

11 Reasons Why INVRS is Better Than Excel Alone

If you work with your own investment models you likely use excel to build them, but excel isn’t ideal for many reasons and it costs you in other ways.   First, you need good data and it isn’t just lying around in an easy to import format.   You’re either keying it in yourself or paying money for excel downloads.   When you need data from numerous sources – price information, data from different statements and across multiple years - you must merge it from multiple sheets.   It's a n inefficient process which can lead to data corruption. After all this data is collected and merged, models built and tested, the net result is one statistic for one company.   A stand-alone number without context has limited use.   To be meaningful, you need to compare it to similar companies.       This is just a sample of the challenges.  You need software that overcomes these problems and is designed for investment model creation. Surprise!  This software exists,
Post a Comment
Read more

NextEra - Good Dividend in the Renewable Energy Sector

NextEra had good results relative to a group of peers in a factor-based analysis. NextEra has an appealing profitability and income profile. Its price momentum looks decent, with a caveat. Its relatively small size (a small mid-cap) coupled with its industry (renewable energy) further weight the odds that this company could be a strong performer in the future. If you want in on renewable energy, we recommend NextEra. The Analysis Overview I created a portfolio of stocks in the alternative energy sector, looking specifically for companies with a market cap over $1B but less than $4B.  This is a sweet spot that offers strong potential for growth but is also substantial enough not to be too speculative. It's my believe that alternative energy is on the ascendance, where as fossil fuels will inevitably decline (NextEra isn't a pure play in this regard however, natural gas assets are part of its portfolio).  If you share this belief and you want exposure to this ma
Post a Comment
Read more

Analyzing Results - 2013/Y-6

 There were eight companies in Group 8 (no 9) in 2013/Y-6: EW  STZ LRCX ALXN MU MCHP AME DE This is how they each fared from 2014 to 2020 - the year runs from April 1 to March 31st:   EW         92%, -58%, 5%, 48%, 41%, -1% STZ        36%, 31%, 7%, 42%, -22%, -18% LRCX     27%, 10%, 57%, 60%, -6%, 32% ALXN     12%, -18%, -15%, -7%, 24%, -34% MU         11%, -61%, 162%, 82%, -17%, 0 MCHP     5%, 3%, 56%, 27%, -4%, -21% AME        1%, -4%, 9%, 42%, 12%, -14% DE           -2%, -9%, 45%, 45%, 24%, -34% Six Year Return: EW  69% STZ  81% LRCX  355% ALXN  -42% MU  72% MCHP  60% AME  42% DE  68% What score did each of the above have in 2014/Y-5? EW - 6 STZ - 8 (no 9) LRCX - 4 ALXN - 8 (no 9) MU - 6 MCHP - 5 AME - 6 DE -5 What score did each have in 2015/Y-4? EW - 5 STZ -6 LRCX - 6 ALXN -5 MU - 6 MCHP - 2 AME - 3 DE - 1 What score did each have in 2016/Y-3? EW - 8 STZ - 7 LRCX - 7 ALXN - 6 MU - 7 MCHP - 5 AME - 1 DE - 2 What score did each have in 2017/Y-2? EW - 8 STZ - 4 LRCX - 8 ALXN - 6 MU -
Post a Comment
Read more