This blog is back up for my Gold Bulls: Eldorado Gold Scores High on Value article on Seeking Alpha.
Leverage graph:
Valuation Calculation
Risk Matrix
Leverage graph:
Valuation Calculation
Proven & Probable Resources | Production Guidance | ||||||||||
Contained Gold 000 oz | 2019 | 2020 | |||||||||
2,019 | 2018 | 2020 - pandemic adjusted | 2020-pre-pandemic | 2020 guidance | production costs/oz | total cash costs/oz | all-in sustaining/oz | production costs/oz | total cash costs/oz | all-in sustaining/oz | |
AEM | 21,585 | 22039 | 1,680,000 | 1,875,000 | 1,680,000 | 735 | 673 | 938 | 765 | 1050 | |
AGI | 9,726 | 445,000 | 1010 | 790 | 1040 | ||||||
AUY | 7,859 | 990,000 | 1150 | 660 | 1000 | ||||||
BTG | 6,470 | 980,000 | 425 | 800 | |||||||
EGO | 17,501 | 535,000 | 575 | 900 | |||||||
GOLD | 71,000 | 4,800,000 | 1005 | 675 | 945 | ||||||
IAG | 16,700 | 730,000 | 925 | 865 | 1125 | ||||||
NEM | 100,200 | 6,000,000 | 775 | 1015 | |||||||
AUY could add 7382 for another mine they own put aren't working with | |||||||||||
Guidance Model | Getting this much | ||||||||||
operatating profit/ | |||||||||||
gold price | 1,700 | AISC | Guidance | Risk Factor | Shares OS | share | Risk Adjusted | price | Profit per share | Risk adjusted | |
AEM | 1,700 | 1050 | 1,680,000 | 76.27777778 | 234,787,000 | 4.65 | 354.77 | 61.54 | 13.2 | 0.17 | |
AGI | 1,700 | 1040 | 445,000 | 71 | 390,738,000 | 0.75 | 53.48 | 8.30 | 11.0 | 0.16 | |
AUY | 1,700 | 1000 | 990,000 | 70.506 | 950,265,000 | 0.73 | 51.42 | 5.21 | 7.1 | 0.10 | |
BTG | 1,700 | 800 | 980,000 | 45.9525 | 1,039,990,000 | 0.85 | 38.97 | 5.35 | 6.3 | 0.14 | |
EGO | 1,700 | 900 | 535,000 | 73.482 | 167,253,000 | 2.56 | 188.04 | 9.03 | 3.5 | 0.05 | |
GOLD | 1,700 | 945 | 4,800,000 | 66.624 | 1,778,040,000 | 2.04 | 135.79 | 25.71 | 12.6 | 0.19 | |
IAG | 1,700 | 1125 | 730,000 | 54.435 | 472,854,000 | 0.89 | 48.32 | 3.51 | 4.0 | 0.07 | |
NEM | 1,700 | 1015 | 6,000,000 | 76.2747619 | 802,585,000 | 5.12 | 390.60 | 58.41 | 11.4 | 0.15 | |
Reserves model | |||||||||||
Value of reserves | Cost of reserves | risk adjusted | |||||||||
gold price | Average PM | reserves | value of reserves | Shares OS | price | Market cap | per share | ||||
AEM | 0.2961 | 21,585 | 36694500 | 234,787,000 | 62 | 14,448,791,980 | 156.29 | 0.39 | 0.005 | ||
AGI | 0.1887 | 9,726 | 16534200 | 390,738,000 | 8 | 3,243,125,400 | 42.32 | 0.20 | 0.003 | ||
AUY | 0.20258 | 7,859 | 13360300 | 950265000 | 5 | 4,950,880,650 | 14.06 | 0.37 | 0.005 | ||
BTG | 0.4165 | 6,470 | 10999000 | 1039990000 | 5 | 5,563,946,500 | 10.58 | 0.51 | 0.011 | ||
EGO | 0.1652 | 17,501 | 29751700 | 167253000 | 9 | 1,510,294,590 | 177.88 | 0.05 | 0.001 | ||
GOLD | 0.6387 | 71,000 | 120700000 | 1778040000 | 26 | 45,713,408,400 | 67.88 | 0.38 | 0.006 | ||
IAG | 0.083233333 | 16,700 | 28390000 | 472854000 | 4 | 1,659,717,540 | 60.04 | 0.06 | 0.001 | ||
NEM | 0.3797 | 100,200 | 170340000 | 802585000 | 58 | 46,878,989,850 | 212.24 | 0.28 | 0.004 |
Risk Matrix
AEM | AGI | AUY | BTG | EGO | GOLD | IAG | NEM | |
# operating mines | 9 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 22 | 4 | 21 |
Nunavut | 2 | 1 | ||||||
Nunavut AI | 73.24 | 73.24 | ||||||
Ontario | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | ||||
Ontario AI | 79.29 | 79.29 | 79.29 | 79.29 | ||||
Finland | 1 | |||||||
Finland AI | 92 | |||||||
Mexico | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||||
Mexico AI | 65.43 | 65.43 | 65.43 | |||||
Manitoba | 1 | |||||||
Manitoba AI | 68.01 | |||||||
Oregon | 1 | |||||||
Oregon AI | 69.46417 | |||||||
Brazil | 1 | 2 | ||||||
Brazil AI | 63.36 | 63.36 | ||||||
Chile | 2 | 1 | ||||||
Chile AI | 77.72 | 77.72 | ||||||
Jujuy, Argentina | ||||||||
Jujuy, Argentina AI | ||||||||
San Juan, Argentina | 1 | |||||||
San Juan, Argentina AI | 76.2 | |||||||
Santa Cruz, Argentina | 1 | 1 | ||||||
Santa Cruz, Argentina AI | 60.49 | 60.49 | ||||||
Mali | 1 | 2 | 2 | |||||
Mail AI | 39.53 | 39.53 | 39.53 | |||||
Philippines | 1 | |||||||
Philippines AI | 63 | |||||||
Namibia | 1 | |||||||
Namibia AI | 58.22 | |||||||
Nicaragua | 2 | |||||||
Nicaragua AI | 43.03 | |||||||
Romania | 1 | |||||||
Romania AI | 74 | |||||||
Greece | 3 | |||||||
Greece AI | 70 | |||||||
Turkey | 2 | |||||||
Turkey AI | 81.6 | |||||||
Quebec | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||
Quebec AI | 77.49 | 77.49 | 77.49 | |||||
Nevada | 9 | 8 | ||||||
Nevada AI | 87.54 | 87.54 | ||||||
Tanzania | 3 | |||||||
Tanzania AI | 32.82 | |||||||
Saudi Arabia | 1 | |||||||
Saudi Arabia AI | 69 | |||||||
DRC | 1 | |||||||
DRC AI | 39.2 | |||||||
Papua New Guinea | 1 | |||||||
PNG AI | 58.84 | |||||||
Dominican Republic | 1 | 1 | ||||||
Dominican Republic AI | 35.85 | 35.85 | ||||||
Cote D'Ivoire | 1 | |||||||
Cote D'ivoire AI | 60 | |||||||
Burkina Faso | 1 | |||||||
Burkina Faso AI | 61.19 | |||||||
Ghana | 2 | |||||||
Ghana AI | 60 | |||||||
Western Australia | 1 | |||||||
Western Australia AI | 92.45 | |||||||
Northern Territory | 1 | |||||||
Northern Territory AI | 81.43 | |||||||
Colorado | 1 | |||||||
Colorado AI | 68.46 | |||||||
Suriname | 1 | |||||||
Suriname AI | 66.13 | |||||||
Peru | 1 | |||||||
Peru, AI | 75.14 | |||||||
Saskatchewan | ||||||||
Saskatchewan AI | ||||||||
Overall Rating | 76.27777778 | 71.15236 | 70.506 | 50.945 | 72.378889 | 66.43091 | 54.435 | 76.2747619 |
Check Digit | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
AI = attractiveness indes | ||||||||
Source: | https://www.fraserinstitute.org/sites/default/files/annual-survey-of-mining-companies-2019.pdf | |||||||
US Average | 69.46416667 |
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