Tuesday, August 21, 2018

Looking for Value Part 2b) Which Industry Within the Sector?

The next part of this analysis will determine which of the three industries look the most promising from a value perspective.  I'll then do a more thorough analysis on it.

Methodology

Within each industry I'm going to compare the earnings per share growth to the change in price and then take an average.  I'm looking for the industry that has had the highest EPS growth but the smallest share price growth.

Telecom Majors

Security Earnings Per Share - Fiscal Period (Y) Earnings Per Share - Fiscal Period (Y-3) Price (Current) Price (M-36) 3 YEAR CHANGE IN EPS 3 YEAR CHANGE IN PRICE
VZ 7.36 2.42 54.79 46.01 2.0413 0.1908
T 4.7652 1.19 33.03 33.2 3.0044 -0.0051
SHEN 1.33 0.695 37.45 19.345 0.9137 0.9359
CNSL 1.07 0.3458 12.07 19.51 2.0943 -0.3813
BCE 2.4037 2.6982 41.54 40.44 -0.1091 0.0272
ALSK -0.12 -0.06 1.63 2.22 1 -0.2658
ATNI 1.9425 2.9382 73.53 71.45 -0.3389 0.0291
CBB 0.58 1.55 13 3.43 -0.6258 2.7901
Average 0.9974875 0.4151125

Telecom Specialty

I had to remove a bunch of securities from the portfolio - most because they're now private (STRP, SHOR, LMOS, IQNT, HCOM, LVLT, GNCM.A/B, WSTC), one because it was merged into another company (FRP) and one because it trades too infrequently (SGRB). 
After much internal debate I also removed TEUM as it didn't have enough history (in Q3 2016 it was spun out of Elephant Talk Communications, ETAK).

Security Earnings Per Share - Fiscal Period (Y) Earnings Per Share - Fiscal Period (Y-3) Price (Current) Price (M-36) 3 YEAR CHANGE IN EPS 3 YEAR CHANGE IN PRICE
WIN -62.6 -13.5 5.18 7.19 3.637 -0.2796
ZAYO 0.35 -0.7502 37.96 27.97 -1.4665 0.3572
VG -0.1506 0.09 14.48 5.55 -2.6733 1.609
RNET -0.9 0.87 14.3 28.83 -2.0345 -0.504
NULM 1.93 0.54 19.3 7.5 2.5741 1.5733
OOMA -0.71 -0.3621 16.3 8.82 0.9608 0.8481
LICT 1063.801 444.34 14300 5250 1.3941 1.7238
LBRDA 11.1 -1.52 78.36 54.47 -8.3026 0.4386
IDT 0.35 0.82 5.43 15.62 -0.5732 -0.6524
GTT -1.71 -0.85 38.35 21.99 1.0118 0.744
FSNN -1.08 -0.9071 3.84 2.12 0.1906 0.8113
FTR -25.99 1.95 5.73 5.07 -14.3282 0.1302
ENT -4.07 -0.78 2.68 11.77 4.2179 -0.7723
ETAK -0.7628 -3.75 2.57 0.3 -0.7966 7.5667
CTL 2.21 1.36 23.86 27.04 0.625 -0.1176
CCOI 0.13 0.02 52.65 27.77 5.5 0.8959
Average -0.628975 0.8982625

Telecom Wireless

Security Earnings Per Share - Fiscal Period (Y) Earnings Per Share - Fiscal Period (Y-3) Price (Current) Price (M-36) 3 YEAR CHANGE IN EPS 3 YEAR CHANGE IN PRICE
USM 0.14 -0.51 44.55 36.92 -1.2745 0.2067
TELDF -0.1466 -0.5704 4.39 5.4079 -0.743 -0.18822
TDS 1.37 -1.26 30.67 28.44 -2.0873 0.0784
TMUS 5.2 0.3 65.84 41.86 16.3333 0.57286
SBAC 0.86 -0.19 157.9 118.2 -5.5263 0.3359
S 1.81 -0.85 6.17 5.06 -3.1294 0.2194
PDVW -1.7 -1.46 30.2 31.97 0.1644 -0.0554
ORBC -0.84 -0.08 10.83 6.09 9.5 0.7783
NIHD -3.0102 -11.535 5.45 8.59 -0.739 -0.3655
ICTG 6.64 1.64 63.25 21 3.0488 2.0119
IMASY 0.4043 0.7569 7 15 -0.4658 -0.5333
I -1.5 1.99 22.96 9.67 -1.7538 1.3744
IRDM 1.82 0.69 20.7 7.45 1.6377 1.7785
GSAT -0.08 -0.5 0.5343 1.76 -0.84 -0.6964
FETLF 1.6419 1.7392 39.0095 2.15 -0.0559 17.144
CEL 0.3086 0.9812 6.02 5.8443 -0.6855 0.0301
AMX 0.4672 1.0034 16.77 17.9403 -0.5344 -0.0652
SPOK -0.76 0.94 15.55 16.3911 -1.8085 -0.0513
GOGO -2.17 -0.99 4.55 15.89 1.1919 -0.7137
Average 0.643826316 1.150601962


Telecom Majors looks like the best industry to start a more in depth analysis.

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