Skip to main content

BACK-TESTING EP MODEL Y-6 for RETAIL TRADE

I almost changed the return period to May 1 to April 30th.  The number of companies with a year end date of January 31st were as abundant as December 31st.  But then I noticed a couple of companies with August year ends whose results were already available (it's September 30th today).  Given that it has taken only two months to have results made me think that my current frame of three months was too long.  But then I thought, three months is acceptable - it's extra busy at the beginning of a new year - so I decided to keep everything as is. 


One Year Return


Two Year Return Three Year Return Four Year Return Five Year Return Six Year Return Return for Year Two Return for Year Three Return for Year Four Return for Year Five Return for Year Six Observations
There's only one company in Group 8.  It did have the best results for the first year.  Group 6 was a consistently strong contender.  I'm interested to see how the constituents for each group change as I move forward in the back-testing, ie) in Y-5, Y-4 etc.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

11 Reasons Why INVRS is Better Than Excel Alone

If you work with your own investment models you likely use excel to build them, but excel isn’t ideal for many reasons and it costs you in other ways.
First, you need good data and it isn’t just lying around in an easy to import format.You’re either keying it in yourself or paying money for excel downloads.
When you need data from numerous sources – price information, data from different statements and across multiple years - you must merge it from multiple sheets.  It's an inefficient process which can lead to data corruption.
After all this data is collected and merged, models built and tested, the net result is one statistic for one company.A stand-alone number without context has limited use.To be meaningful, you need to compare it to similar companies. This is just a sample of the challenges.  You need software that overcomes these problems and is designed for investment model creation.
Surprise!  This software exists, it's INVRS.  You can get a free analysis report on …
Post a Comment
Read more

NextEra - Good Dividend in the Renewable Energy Sector

NextEra had good results relative to a group of peers in a factor-based analysis.NextEra has an appealing profitability and income profile.Its price momentum looks decent, with a caveat.Its relatively small size (a small mid-cap) coupled with its industry (renewable energy) further weight the odds that this company could be a strong performer in the future.
The Analysis Overview
I created a portfolio of stocks in the alternative energy sector, looking specifically for companies with a market cap over $1B but less than $4B.  This is a sweet spot that offers strong potential for growth but is also substantial enough not to be too speculative.

It's my believe that alternative energy is on the ascendance, where as fossil fuels will inevitably decline (NextEra isn't a pure play in this regard however, natural gas assets are part of its portfolio).  If you share this belief and you want exposure to this market, NextEra looks like a good bet.

This is a factor-based analysis on seven …
Post a Comment
Read more