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Back-up for Gold Bulls Seeking Alpha Article

This blog is back up for my Gold Bulls: Eldorado Gold Scores High on Value article on Seeking Alpha.

Leverage graph:

Valuation Calculation

Proven & Probable ResourcesProduction GuidanceContained Gold 000 oz20192020                      2,019 20182020 - pandemic adjusted2020-pre-pandemic 2020 guidance production costs/oztotal cash costs/ozall-in sustaining/ozproduction costs/oztotal cash costs/ozall-in sustaining/ozAEM                   21,585 22039                                1,680,000                      1,875,000                      1,680,000 7356739387651050AGI                      9,726                          445,000 10107901040AUY                      7,859                          990,000 11506601000BTG                      6,470                          980,000 425800EGO                   17,501                          535,000 575900GOLD                   71,000                      4,800,000 1005675945IAG                   16,700   …

Revisiting November 2017 Gold Analysis

I will be publishing a new gold analysis soon but I want to first revisit the analysis I did in November 2017.

In November 2017, and over the course of three Seeking Alpha articles I looked at gold companies.  In the first article I looked gold companies trading in the US with the following characteristics: leverage, valuation and sensitivity to gold prices.  In the second article I looked more closely at a short list of four companies that did well under the criteria of the first analysis.  The third repeated the analysis on Canadian miners.

Here is the performance of all of the companies over the past 18 months


If you click on the "All Securities" link you will see the break down of all the companies in the list.

This blog post is going to look at the three components of the first article to see how predictive each was to the overall return.

Leverage Factor
The first factor was leverage and the criteria was for highly leverage companies (read the article if you want to know…

Was It A Good Call? NVO and Major Pharmeuticals

I published my very first Seeking Alpha article on January 9th, 2017.

I looked at 11 companies classified as Major Pharmaceuticals:

PFEAZNNVOLLYGSKBMYABBVSNYNVSMRKJNJ I concluded that NVO was the best choice as it was undervalued, had high quality earnings and five years of year over year growth in earnings.
How did that call do, roughly 3.5 years later?
We've added a new feature to INVRS called Performance Graphs.  Let's take a look:

The green bar shows the average return for the group, the purple annualizes it and the blue divides adjusts the return for risk by dividing it by its standard deviation.


Clicking into the "All Securities" at the bottom breaks the group into its parts.  NVO wasn't the best.  It was third from a return perspective and second from a risk adjusted perspective.  It was double the group average.

LLY and AZN, based on my method of analysis did not have anything to recommend them.  They weren't in the running.

I'm pleased with the resu…

Building and Using an Ass-Kicking Dividend Model

Preamble I'm working with some new features in INVRS that makes it easier to screen using custom investment models.  I'm looking through the whole Canadian universe for kick-ass dividend stocks and I'm using the following metrics:
Years of consecutive dividend growth (I set a minimum of eight for this analysis),Dividend coverage,Value relative to historical dividend yield. andTotal return (defined as projected dividend yield plus projected dividend growth). My initial screen is a dividend yield greater than 3%.  There were several hundred and I winnowed these down by running an analysis that extracted the companies that had increased their dividends per share every year for at least the past eight years. And this is where we begin...
Constructing the Template for Year Over Year Dividend Growth To construct this model I selected eight years of dividend per share data, then wrote if(A>B,0,1) eight times, just changing the letters as I went back in time.  This says that if…