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Showing posts from October, 2018

Google Inc. - Risk is High

Overview: Alphabet, Inc. is a holding company, which engages in the business of acquisition and operation of different companies. It operates through the Google and Other Bets segments. The Google segment includes its main Internet products such as Ads, Android, Chrome, Commerce, Google Cloud, Google Maps, Google Play, Hardware, Search, and YouTube. The Other B)ets segment includes businesses such as Access, Calico, CapitalG, GV, Nest, Verily, Waymo, and X. The company was founded by Lawrence E. Page and Sergey Mikhaylovich Brin on October 2, 2015 and is headquartered in Mountain View, CA.

Founded: 2015
Number of Employees: 80110
Headquarters: Mountain View US
CEO: Lawrence E. Page
Analysis Methodology: This will be a general analysis reviewing the following areas: earnings quality, growth, value and dividends.  We'll also look at R&D investment as an indicator of potential competitive advantage, sales per employee as an indicator of efficiency and relative earnings growth co…

Power Up Your Investment Analysis Using Probability

Nobody knows the future, but developing our skills in probability analysis will make us better at preparing for it.

We can use probability at any level - global, country, market, industry, company.  We can use it for an event, for example the probability of the price of gold increasing or the trend of interest rates.

For this example, we'll use probability at the U.S. market level.

The question we'll attempt to answer using probability is "does the bull market have more to run, or are we at the top?"

Step 1 - Identify the key factors
We'll begin by listing the factors that influence, not just any bull market, but this one.  Remember, the factors I choose and the probabilities I assign are my decisions.  You may come up with different factors and different probabilities.

In my opinion, this bull market was created in the aftermath of the global financial crisis.  It was built on earnings, incredibly loose monetary policy and a new tool called quantitative easing.…

Twilio - Growth Isn't Reasonably Priced

Overview: Twilio, Inc. engages in the provision of communications software, cloud-based platform and services. Its developer-first platform approach consists of programmable communications cloud, super network, and business model for innovators. The company was founded by John Wolthuis, Jeffery G. Lawson, and Evan Cooke.

Founded: 2008
Number of Employees: 996
Headquarters: San Francisco US
CEO: Jeff Lawson

Analysis Methodology: We'll keep TWLO's business model in mind as we analyze it.  They're an enabling company - they provide tools to help other companies deliver on their objectives.  They help their customers focus on their core business by providing a robust platform where they can quickly, easily and for less money (presumably)  build the ancillary features they need to be successful, namely customer support.  They're a B2B business using a SaaS model.  They are "developer-centric".  I interpret this to mean they are focusing on the developer in their …

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Expedia Lacks A Compelling Investment Story

Overview:  Expedia Group, Inc. is an online travel company, engaged in the provision of travel products and services to leisure and corporate travelers.

It operates through the following segments: Core OTA, trivago, HomeAway, and Egencia. The Core OTA segment offers full range of travel and advertising services to worldwide customers through a variety of brands including: Expedia.com and Hotels.com. The trivago segment involves in sending referrals to online travel companies and travel service providers from its hotel metasearch websites. The HomeAway segment operates an online marketplace for the vacation rental industry. The Egencia segment manages travel services to corporate customers worldwide.

Founded: 1994
Number of Employees: 22,615
Headquarters: Bellevue US
CEO: Mark D. Okerstrom, MBA

Analysis Methodology This will be a general analysis reviewing the following areas of EXPE: earnings quality, growth, value and dividends.   We're also going to look at R&D investment a…

A Value Opportunity in Bausch Health

Overview: Bausch Health Cos., Inc. engages in the development, manufacture, and market of a range of branded, generic and branded generic pharmaceuticals, medical devices and over-the-counter products. It operates through the following segments: The Bausch + Lomb/International, Branded Rx, and U.S. Diversified Products.

The Bausch + Lomb/International segment consists of the sale of pharmaceutical products, over-the-counter products, and medical devices products. The Branded Rx segment comprises of pharmaceutical products related to the Salix product portfolio; dermatological product portfolio; branded pharmaceutical products, branded generic pharmaceutical products; over-the-counter products; medical device products; Bausch + Lomb products sold in Canada; and the oncology, dentistry, and health products for women. The U.S. Diversified Products segment refers to the sales in the U.S. of pharmaceutical products, over-the-counter products, and medical device products in the areas of ne…

An Income Opportunity in UPS

Analysis Origin & Methodology
We created this analysis on request.  Analyses of this sort are general -we don't know the requester's circumstances and we don't know what kind of an opportunity, if any, the stock presents.
Therefore, we look broadly at the stock including quality, value, growth and income.  In this analysis, we looked at UPS with a group of peers.

Some areas will have additional notes.  This will be indicated at the conclusion of the section and can be found at the end of the report.
Company Overview
United Parcel Service, Inc. is a logistics and package delivery company, which provides supply chain management services. Its logistics services include transportation, distribution, contract logistics, ground freight, ocean freight, air freight, customs brokerage, insurance, and financing.

The company operates through the following segments: U.S. Domestic Package, International Package, and Supply Chain and Freight. The U.S. Domestic Package segment offer…