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CNQ: Too Bad About the Price

VALUATION MODEL FOR CNQ
The Model We'll start by looking at CNQ's value relative to the group and then we'll look at it's dividend yield relative to its five year average. 
Group Valuation Metrics We're looking at four valuation metrics  and then ranking them from best to worst.  The ranks are summed and a final rank is calculated.
SecurityPrice to Book
RankPrice to Sales
RankPE Ratio
RankEV/EBITDA
RankSumFinal
RankCNQ0.0132
31.9171
517.86
35.92
4152CVE.009
4.5659
10na (negative)
123.14
2174HSE .0054
9.6423
97.12
84.68
63210ECA.0076
61.06
75.09
103.93
8319

ALA.0089
5.739
8na (negative)
1na (negative)
1152TOU.0052
102.7331
110.099
66.50
3205VET.0142
22.6826
212.5324
45.87
5131PXT.0196
12.4163
36.8331
92.45
10236VII.0063
81.2609
67.57
73.24
9308ARX.007     
72.0627 
4   11..87 
54.50   
7 236   CNQ doesn't look like good value relative to its peers.
Dividend Yield Relative to 5 Year Average A rule of thumb for this metric is to only purchase a stock when it'…
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CNQ - Great Dividend Profile

INCOME ANALYSIS FOR CNQ
The Model There are a multitude of ways to look at dividends.  This report is going to combine two elements: the sum of the current yield and the five year average growth rate (total return) and the dividend coverage.
The Total Return The graph below shows the sum of the current yield and the five year average growth rate.

CNQ is really high, almost 24%.  This is a combination of a 3.95% dividend yield and a 5 year growth rate of 19.95%.  Note, the 3 year growth rate was 13.97%.
Dividend Coverage We want to see that the TTM dividend is less than 75% of the company's free cash flow with this metric.

CNQ is 37%. 
Summary CNQ has an impressive total return and good coverage.
Disclaimer The point of this report is to demonstrate what INVRS can do.  This is not a comprehensive analysis and we cannot be held responsible for any investment decisions you make. 
We may publish this report after three business days.
Thank you for your interest in INVRS.  Discover and…
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11 Reasons Why INVRS is Better Than Excel Alone

If you work with your own investment models you likely use excel to build them, but excel isn’t ideal for many reasons and it costs you in other ways.
First, you need good data and it isn’t just lying around in an easy to import format.You’re either keying it in yourself or paying money for excel downloads.
When you need data from numerous sources – price information, data from different statements and across multiple years - you must merge it from multiple sheets.  It's an inefficient process which can lead to data corruption.
After all this data is collected and merged, models built and tested, the net result is one statistic for one company.A stand-alone number without context has limited use.To be meaningful, you need to compare it to similar companies. This is just a sample of the challenges.  You need software that overcomes these problems and is designed for investment model creation.
Surprise!  This software exists, it's INVRS.  You can get a free analysis report on …
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TSLA Shows Decent Quality of Earnings

Tesla creates a lot of polarization.  It's like the industrial equivalent of our current political state.

I find that the main narrative is vitriolic in nature.  The people in the love-camp don't have a tonne to write about because Tesla's financial and operating results aren't meeting expectations, it's difficult to argue back.

I'm going to offer this item of information to the debate.  It's a quality of earnings I ran on the large cap automotive and automotive aftermarket.

TSLA's are good.  Not great, but good and they are the highest, along with two other firms in the group, which further impresses. 

The quality of earnings matter.  They tell us whether what's being presented can be trusted or not.


TSLA got a 6 out of 9, compared to a group average of less than 4.
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UPS Margin of Safety of 93%

According this Ohlson Clean Surplus valuation model, UPS is under-valued. Its "theoretical" price is $199 (why the quotes? because it's ridiculous to suppose that a model could really give you the true value of a stock, but it can be a useful guideline, ball park or an indication of a margin of safety).

CHRW is also trading with a margin of safety of 43%.


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